North Carolina nuclear power plant declares “unusual event” following storm, “hot shutdown”

The Brunswick Nuclear Plant’s two reactor went into a “hot shutdown” following and “unusual event” last Saturday

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The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is being tight-lipped about an “unusual event” which occurred at the Brunswick Nuclear Plant last Saturday which forced a “hot shutdown” of both the plant’s Generation IV-type reactors 1 and 2.

The NRC classified the emergency as an “unusual event” but provided little to no details on the situation.

Additionally, the NRC reports that weather conditions from Tropical Storm Florence are currently preventing workers from accessing the plant.

“A hazardous event has resulted in on site conditions sufficient to prohibit the plant staff from accessing the site via personal vehicles due to flooding of local roads by Tropical Storm Florence.”

From the NRC regarding Event 53609:

NRC

The current rector mode is showing as “hot shutdown” and more rain is on the way.

River waters in the area are expected to rise as much as 20 feet in the coming days. Not to mention, local dams in the area may be to capacity.

We will provide updates as we get them.

Update: The NRC “unusual event” warning appears to be unrelated to the planned shutdown of the plant which occurred last Thursday, two days prior to the alert, as reported by Weather.com in the Sept 13 report titled North Carolina Nuclear Power Plant Shuts Down Ahead of Florence; It’s One of 9 in the Path of the Storm. (Click to Source)

 

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After Floods and Heatwave, Japan Braces for Typhoon Jongdari

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High temperatures in Tokyo on July 24. Photographer: Martin Bureau/AFP via Getty Images

Typhoon Jongdari is set to make landfall on Japan’s mainland this weekend, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to much of a country hit in recent weeks by a deadly heatwave and historic flooding.

The typhoon was located off Chichijima, an island in the Pacific about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) southeast of Tokyo, as of 2 p.m. Japan time Friday. Carrying sustained winds of 144 kilometers (89 miles) per hour, it’s expected to speed up and maintain its intensity as it nears the mainland on Saturday afternoon, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

After skirting Tokyo on Saturday, the typhoon is predicted to track towards the west of the country, near regions that were the worst hit by the historic rain and flooding. More than two hundred were killed in the floods, with some roads still impassable and train lines suspended.

“It’s possible that the typhoon could have a very large impact” on the flood-hit areas, a spokesman for the Japan Meteorological Agency said, and while the agency has yet to issue any specific warnings for these areas, it could do so over the weekend.

For now, the agency is warning many regions of strong rainfall of up to 500 millimeters over 24 hours, and urging people to be on guard for the risk of landslides and flooding. Tokyo’s Sumidagawa fireworks festival, which attracts close to a million visitors, has been postponed to Sunday as a result of the approaching storm.

Jongdari would be the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Japan this year. Recent years have seen an increase in the number of typhoons directly hitting Japan, with at least four in each of the past four years. (Click to Source)

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The world has never seen a Category 6 hurricane. But the day may be coming

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Hurricane Patricia in 2015 achieved sustained wind speed of 215 mph. By comparison, last year’s Hurricane Irma, a Category 5 storm, had winds of 180 mph.


As a ferocious hurricane bears down on South Florida, water managers desperately lower canals in anticipation of 4 feet of rain.

Everyone east of Dixie Highway is ordered evacuated, for fear of a menacing storm surge. Forecasters debate whether the storm will generate the 200 mph winds to achieve Category 6 status.

 

This is one scenario for hurricanes in a warmer world, a subject of fiendish complexity and considerable scientific research, as experts try to tease out the effects of climate change from the influences of natural climate cycles.

 

Some changes — such as the slowing of hurricanes’ forward motion and the worsening of storm surges from rising sea levels — are happening now. Other impacts, such as their increase in strength, may have already begun but are difficult to detect, considering all of the other climate forces at work.

 But more certainty has developed over the last few years. Among the conclusions: Hurricanes will be wetter. They are likely to move slower, lingering over whatever area they hit. And although there is debate over whether there will be more or fewer of them, most researchers think hurricanes will be stronger.

 

“There’s almost unanimous agreement that hurricanes will produce more rain in a warmer climate,” said Adam Sobel, professor of applied physics at Columbia University and director of its Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate. “There’s agreement there will be increased coastal flood risk, at a minimum because of sea level rise. Most people believe that hurricanes will get, on average, stronger. There’s more debate about whether we can detect that already.”

 

No one knows how strong they could get, as they’re fueled by warmer ocean water. Timothy Hall, senior scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said top wind speeds of up to 230 mph could occur by the end of the century, if current global warming trends continue. This would be the strength of an F-4 tornado, which can pick up cars and throw them through the air (although tornadoes, because of their rapid changes of wind direction, are considered more destructive).

 

Does that mean the five-category hurricane scale should be expanded to include a Category 6, or even Category 7?

The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, developed in the early 1970s, ranks hurricanes from Category 1, which means winds of 74-95 mph, to Category 5, which covers winds of 157 mph or more.

 

Since each category covers a range of wind speeds, it would appear that once wind speed reaches 190 or 200 mph, the pattern may call for another category. Last season saw two Category 5 hurricanes, Irma and Maria, with Irma reaching 180 mph. And in 2015, off Mexico’s Pacific coast, Hurricane Patricia achieved a freakish sustained wind speed of 215 mph.

 

“If we had twice as many Category 5s — at some point, several decades down the line — if that seems to be the new norm, then yes, we’d want to have more partitioning at the upper part of the scale,” Hall said. “At that point, a Category 6 would be a reasonable thing to do.’’

 

Many scientists and forecasters aren’t particularly interested in categories anyway, since these capture only wind speed and not the other dangers posed by hurricanes.

 

“We’ve tried to steer the focus toward the individual hazards, which include storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes and rip currents, instead of the particular category of the storm, which only provides information about the hazard from wind,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. “Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale already captures ‘catastrophic damage’ from wind, so it’s not clear that there would be a need for another category even if storms were to get stronger.”

 

Among the most solid predictions is that storms will move more slowly. In fact, this has already happened. A new study in the journal Nature found that tropical cyclones have decreased their forward speed by 10% since 1949, and many scientists expect this trend to continue.

 

This doesn’t mean a hurricane’s winds would slow down. It means the hurricane would be more likely to linger over an area — like last year’s Hurricane Harvey. It settled over the Houston area and dropped more than 4 feet of rain on some areas, flooding thousands of houses.

 

In addition to moving slower, future hurricanes are expected to dump a lot more rain. A study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research this year looked at how 20 Atlantic hurricanes would change if they took place at the end of the century, under the average projection for global warming. Warm air holds more water than cold air — which is why no one complains about the humidity when it’s cold out. The study found hurricanes would generate an average of 24% more rain, an increase that guarantees more storms would produce catastrophic flooding.

 

The production of horrifying amounts of rain shows another way in which Harvey is a window into the future. One study, which looked at how much rain Harvey would have produced if it had formed in the 1950s, found that global warming had increased its rainfall by up to 38%.

 

Other scientists see Harvey less as a symptom of climate change than an indication of what we can expect in the future.

 

“Whether we’re talking about a change in the number of storms or an increase in the most intense storms, the changes that are likely to come from global warming are not likely to be detectable until 50 years from now,” said Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Warm ocean water provides the fuel for hurricanes, but a hotter world would not necessarily produce more of them. While many scientists for a long time did think an increase in temperatures would produce more storms, they have begun focusing on factors that could suppress the formation of hurricanes.

 

Many models for future climates show an increase in wind shear, the crisscrossing high-altitude winds that tear up incipient tropical cyclones. And they show less of the atmospheric instability necessary for the generation of thunderstorms.

But now the thinking is swinging back.

 

“We used to think 20 years ago that in a warmer climate there would be more hurricanes,” said Sobel, of Columbia. “Then the computer models got better. Most of those started to show fewer hurricanes, not more. No one knew why. Then some of the models started to show increases with warming. So I think we’re back to where we don’t know.” (Click to Source)

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The strongest storm on Earth right now is heading for Japan

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Super Typhoon Lan has been undergoing rapid intensification on Thursday night and Friday, and may reach Category 5 intensity by Saturday morning. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour as of Friday afternoon, eastern time, and was still slowly intensifying.

Super Typhoon Lan is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and is likely on a collision course with highly populated areas of Japan while in a weaker, but still formidable state.

One characteristic of this storm that’s clear from satellite imagery is that it has developed a massive eye about 50 miles in diameter. To put that into perspective, if you put the center of the storm on top of Manhattan, it would encompass parts of New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley of New York, southwestern Connecticut, and western Long Island.

As the storm weakens, Typhoon Lan is forecast to move just off the Japanese coast, passing near the city of Kyoto on Oct. 22 and near or directly over Tokyo between the 22nd and 23rd.

At that time, the JTWC, predicts the typhoon will be a large Category 2 storm, though it may also be transitioning into a large and powerful non-tropical system.

Nevertheless, it could bring multiple, serious hazards to the Tokyo area, including storm surge flooding along the coast, inland flooding from heavy rains, as well as strong, damaging winds that could cause widespread power outages.

One of the most interesting aspects of this typhoon will be how it will affect the weather thousands of miles away, including across the East Coast of the U.S. during the next one to two weeks. When typhoons, particularly powerful ones like Lan, recurve into the northern Pacific Ocean, they can give a jolt — akin to a 6-pack of Red Bull — to the jet stream flowing from west to east across the Pacific Ocean.

Map showing the Pacific jet stream before Typhoon Lan recurves into the North Pacific.
Map showing the Pacific jet stream before Typhoon Lan recurves into the North Pacific.

IMAGE: WEATHERBELL

Map showing the Pacific jet stream after Typhoon Lan recurves into the North Pacific.
Map showing the Pacific jet stream after Typhoon Lan recurves into the North Pacific.

IMAGE: WEATHERBELL

 

The jet stream, which is a narrow highway of strong winds at about 30,000 feet above the Earth’s surface that steers weather systems, tends to become more amplified, or wavier, in the days after a strong typhoon recurves into the northern Pacific Ocean. These waves in the jet stream can spawn storms and outbreaks of cold air across North America, and are part of what long-range weather forecasters look for when making a prediction.

It appears that Typhoon Lan, will alter the U.S. weather pattern in a way that ends a long period of unusually mild weather across the eastern U.S., for example.

For now, though, the focus remains on the threat to Japan, given that Tokyo is a flood-prone city of 9 million.  (Click to Site)

Terrifying torrent of water in Puerto Rico after dam fails, forcing 70,000 to evacuate as Hurricane Maria continues to ravage the island

 

  • Water swept through after the dam sustained structural damage from the storm
  • Nearly 16 inches of rain fell in the area, significantly raising water levels on the 90-year-old dam
  • The National Weather Service warned that failure of the dam was ‘imminent’ and could lead to ‘life-threatening’ flash flooding
  • The 345-yard dam is used for public water and irrigation water supply
  • Up to six inches of rain is expected to fall in Puerto Rico on Saturday
  • As Maria moves north, it’s expected to cause surf swells that will increase along portions of the southeastern coast of the US and Bermuda 

A terrifying torrent of water swept through Puerto Rico after a dam failed at Lake Guajataca in the northwest region.

Water was seen sweeping through the municipalities of Isabela and Quebradillas after the dam sustained structural damage from Hurricane Maria.

Nearly 16 inches of rain fell in the area, significantly raising water levels on the 90-year-old dam.

Earlier, Puerto Rican authorities had scrambled to evacuate as many as 70,000 people after the National Weather Service warned that failure of the dam was ‘imminent’ and could lead to ‘life-threatening’ flash flooding.

A terrifying torrent of water swept through Puerto Rico after a dam failed at Lake Guajataca in the northwest region (pictured)

A terrifying torrent of water swept through Puerto Rico after a dam failed at Lake Guajataca in the northwest region (pictured)

Water was seen sweeping through the municipalities of Isabela and Quebradillas after the dam sustained structural damage from Hurricane Maria
Nearly 16 inches of rain fell in the area, significantly raising water levels on the 90-year-old dam

Water was seen sweeping through the municipalities of Isabela and Quebradillas after the dam sustained structural damage from Hurricane Maria. Nearly 16 inches of rain fell in the area, significantly raising water levels on the 90-year-old dam

Earlier, Puerto Rican authorities had scrambled to evacuate as many as 70,000 people after the National Weather Service warned that failure of the dam was 'imminent' and could lead to 'life-threatening' flash flooding

Local residents look at the flooded houses close Lake Guajataca's dam after it burst, bringing a torrent of water through the northwester region of Puerto Rico on Saturday

Local residents look at the flooded houses close Lake Guajataca’s dam after it burst, bringing a torrent of water through the northwester region of Puerto Rico on Saturday

Local residents use a boat to pass next to a flooded house close to the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday

Local residents use a boat to pass next to a flooded house close to the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday

Residents watch as water flows over the road at the dam of the Guajataca lake after it suffered structural damage on Saturday

Residents watch as water flows over the road at the dam of the Guajataca lake after it suffered structural damage on Saturday

 

A house submerged by flood waters is seen close to the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday

A house submerged by flood waters is seen close to the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday
The National Weather Service first learned of a ‘contained breach’ during a Friday afternoon inspection and said a full breach would result in large peak flows that could reach the coast in under 12 hours.

The center is urging people living in the area of the flash flood warning in the northwest to seek higher ground immediately.

The 345-yard dam, which was built in 1929, is used for public water and irrigation water supply, and the reservoir has a water storage capacity of 11 billion gallons.

Hurricane Maria, the strongest storm to hit Puerto Rico since 1928, had maximum sustained winds of 155mph when it made landfall as a Category 4 storm on Thursday.

Governor Ricardo Rossello has said seven people have died as the result of the storm in Puerto Rico. Hurricane Maria also claimed lives on the neighboring islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica, which suffered major destruction.

The monster storm ripped roofs off buildings and flooded homes, leading to power outages that could last for months.

Officials said 1,360 of the island’s 1,600 cellphone towers had been downed, and 85 per cent of above-ground and underground phone and internet cables were knocked out.

The hurricane was expected to tally $45billion in damage and lost economic activity across the Caribbean, with at least $30billion of that in Puerto Rico, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research in Savannah, Georgia.

Debris lays around a house submerged in flood waters near the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday

Debris lays around a house submerged in flood waters near the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday

The US Coast Guard personnel surveys the damage to an oil dock after Hurricane Maria passed  through the area in San Juan on Saturday

The US Coast Guard personnel surveys the damage to an oil dock after Hurricane Maria passed  through the area in San Juan on Saturday

 

Vehicles drive along a flooded road in San Juan after Hurricane Maria passed through the area on Saturday

Vehicles drive along a flooded road in San Juan after Hurricane Maria passed through the area on Saturday

 

A restaurant submerged by flood waters is seen close to the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday

A restaurant submerged by flood waters is seen close to the dam of Lake Guajataca on Saturday

 

The 345-yard dam, which was built in 1929, is used for public water and irrigation water supply (Pictured, a man surveys damage to his house close to Lake Guajataca's dam on Saturday)

The 345-yard dam, which was built in 1929, is used for public water and irrigation water supply (Pictured, a man surveys damage to his house close to Lake Guajataca’s dam on Saturday)

 

Maria, the strongest storm to hit Puerto Rico since 1928, had maximum sustained winds of 155mph when it made landfall as a Category 4 storm on Thursday (Pictured, Maria Luz Navarro looks out on her neighborhood of Zapateria Pizarro surrounded by floodwater on Friday)

Maria, the strongest storm to hit Puerto Rico since 1928, had maximum sustained winds of 155mph when it made landfall as a Category 4 storm on Thursday (Pictured, Maria Luz Navarro looks out on her neighborhood of Zapateria Pizarro surrounded by floodwater on Friday)

 

The storm has so far claimed the lives of seven in Puerto Rico (Pictured, men walk up near colorful damaged buildings in San Juan's 'La Perla' neighborhood on Friday)

 The storm has so far claimed the lives of seven in Puerto Rico (Pictured, men walk up near colorful damaged buildings in San Juan’s ‘La Perla’ neighborhood on Friday)
Across Puerto Rico, more than 15,000 people are in shelters, including some 2,000 rescued from the north coastal town of Toa Baja.

Some of the island’s 3.4million people planned to head to the US to temporarily escape the devastation. However, the storm is still expected to wreak further havoc with rain of up to six inches expected through Saturday.

Around 5am on Saturday, Maria was moving away from the Bahamas and into the open waters of the western Atlantic as a Category 3 storm.

As it moves north, it’s expected to cause surf swells that will increase along portions of the southeastern coast of the US and Bermuda.

The hurricane was expected to tally $30billion in damage and lost economic activity in Puerto Rico (Pictured, people rest outside a damaged house in Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, on Friday)

The hurricane was expected to tally $30billion in damage and lost economic activity in Puerto Rico (Pictured, people rest outside a damaged house in Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, on Friday)

 

Pictured, Elias Cepeda Boria, left, and his brother, Vincente Cepeda Boria, clean up their home in the Zapateria Pizarro area on Friday

Pictured, Elias Cepeda Boria, left, and his brother, Vincente Cepeda Boria, clean up their home in the Zapateria Pizarro area on Friday

 

Around 5am on Saturday, Maria was moving away from the Bahamas and into the open waters of the western Atlantic as a Category 3 storm (above)

Around 5am on Saturday, Maria was moving away from the Bahamas and into the open waters of the western Atlantic as a Category 3 storm (above)

 

As it moves north, it¿s expected to cause surf swells that will increase along portions of the southeastern coast of the US and Bermuda (above)

As it moves north, it’s expected to cause surf swells that will increase along portions of the southeastern coast of the US and Bermuda (above)

 

Across Puerto Rico, more than 15,000 people are in shelters, including some 2,000 rescued from the north coastal town of Toa Baja (Pictured, Liz Maries Bultron looks at the damage at a home in the Zapateria Pizarro area on Friday)

Across Puerto Rico, more than 15,000 people are in shelters, including some 2,000 rescued from the north coastal town of Toa Baja (Pictured, Liz Maries Bultron looks at the damage at a home in the Zapateria Pizarro area on Friday)

Jose Diaz Pisano salvages parts of his roof so he can rebuild in the Zapateria Pizarro area on Friday

 

People sit on the roof of a damaged house after the area was hit by Hurricane Maria in Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, on Friday

People sit on the roof of a damaged house after the area was hit by Hurricane Maria in Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, on Friday

 

People stop on a highway near a mobile phone antenna tower to check for mobile phone signal in Dorado, Puerto Rico, on Friday

People stop on a highway near a mobile phone antenna tower to check for mobile phone signal in Dorado, Puerto Rico, on Friday

Maria hit about two weeks after Hurricane Irma pounded the US Virgin Islands, hitting St Thomas and St John, particularly hard

The islands’ governor, Kenneth Mapp, said it was possible that two islands – St Thomas and St Croix – might reopen to some cruise liner traffic in a month.

Irma, one of the most powerful Atlantic storms on record, killed more than 80 people in the Caribbean and the US.

It followed Harvey, which also killed more than 80 people when it struck Texas in late August and caused severe flooding in Houston.  (Click to Site)

 

 

Maria’s Forecast Path Edging Closer to Outer Banks

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Still a Category 3 storm on Saturday, Hurricane Maria was rolling northward away from the Bahamas on a path that could affect parts of the U.S. East Coast next week. Maria pummeled the Turks and Caicos Islands early Friday, its western eyewall passing over the capital city of Cockburn Town. For the first time in several days, Maria poses no immediate threat to land. At 11 am EDT Saturday, Maria was located about 320 miles east of Nassau, The Bahamas, moving north-northwest at 8 mph. Maria’s top sustained winds had dropped to 115 mph, putting it at the low end of the Category 3 range.

Maria was not a classically symmetric hurricane on Friday night, but its appearance on satellite had become dramatically stronger by midday Saturday.  Very strong thunderstorms (convection) were wrapping around Maria’s ragged, 35-mile-wide eye. As is typically the case for hurricanes moving poleward, Maria’s wind field has been gradually expanding. Hurricane-force winds now extend up to 60 miles from Maria’s center, with tropical-storm-force winds extending out some 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Maria has been successfully fending off moderately strong wind shear of around 15 knots, with the help of its well-established structure as well as very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 29-30°C (84-86°F).

Threat from Maria to U.S. coast is increasing

The odds that the U.S. East Coast will see direct impacts from Maria next week have risen since Friday. Our leading track models for mature hurricanes—the UKMET, European, GFS, and HWRF models—agree that Maria will continue generally northward for the next five days. Importantly, though, each of these models has shifted westward in its projected path around the 4- to 6-day point, which means they are now predicting Maria could end up within 100 – 200 miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina before a sharp eastward turn that will take it out to sea. (The Canadian global model, not typically one of the most reliable for hurricane prediction, was the first to sense this westward shift.)

One key to the leftward trend is an upper-level low at high altitudes—above the 500-millibar level often used to diagnose steering currents—located across the Southeast U.S. (see Figure 1). Maria will make its way north between this low and upper-level ridging across the Northwest Atlantic. The upper low is predicted to become more compact and to move toward Florida early next week. Depending on the evolution of the upper low and on how quickly Maria moves, it’s possible that Maria could pivot around the northeast side of the upper low, which would give it a chance to approach the East Coast. Later next week, a stronger upper-level trough will cart Maria northeastward, away from the coast.

250-mb flow analyzed by GFS, 12Z 9/23/2017
Figure 1.  A weak upper-level trough over the southeast U.S., evident at the 250-mb level (about 34,000 feet) on Saturday morning, September 23, could play a role in the trajectory of Maria as it approaches the coast of the Carolinas next week. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Along with these features, there is an expansive zone of upper-level high pressure north of Maria, bringing summer-like temperatures across much of the Northeast U.S. (One example: Burlington, VT—which has never seen autumn readings above 85°F later than September 23—is predicted to see all-time record heat for so late in the year, with highs approaching 90°F on Sunday through Tuesday.) This ridging across the Northeast and offshore will act as a brake on Maria’s forward speed. The five-day NHC position for Maria is only about 600 miles north of the hurricane’s current position, which would equate to an average forward speed of less than 10 mph.

If Maria moves more quickly than expected, it may have a better chance of pivoting around the Southeast upper low and nearing the Outer Banks ahead of its expected right-hand turn out to sea. In this case, the closest approach to North Carolina would come sooner—perhaps as soon as Wednesday, rather than Thursday or Friday, as suggested by some members of the European model ensemble. As shown below, about 30 – 40% of the GFS and Euro ensemble members from 0Z Saturday bring Maria into the U.S. East Coast, mainly across eastern North Carolina. A track just offshore still appears most likely, but at this point we cannot rule out the possibility of a U.S. landfall in the latter half of next week. Maria may go on to threaten parts of the Canadian Maritimes toward next weekend.

GFS ensembles for Maria, 0Z 9/23/2017
Figure 2. The 20 track forecasts for Maria from the 0Z Saturday, September 23, 2017 GFS model ensemble forecast. Image credit: CFAN.
Euro ensembles for Maria, 0Z 9/23/2017
Figure 3. The 50 track forecasts for Maria from the 0Z Saturday, September 23, 2017 European model ensemble forecast. The operational European model is the red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z Saturday. The track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble is the heavy black line. Image credit: CFAN.

At 11 am EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center adjusted its official prediction westward, putting extreme eastern North Carolina into the 5-day “cone of uncertainty.” Now is a good time to remember that the cone reflects typical track errors over the preceding five years of NHC forecasts. In order to minimize over- or under-warning, the cone is designed such that a given hurricane will fall within the cone about two out of three times—which means you can expect a given hurricane to be outside the cone about one of three times.

Uncertainty in the forecast for Maria may improve this weekend, especially with the help of two factors:

  • Beginning Saturday afternoon, upper-air soundings will be collected at 2:00 am and pm from locations in the eastern and southeastern U.S.
  • NOAA G-IV missions are scheduled to begin sampling the environment around Maria on Sunday.

Intensity forecast for Maria

Maria will continue to traverse very warm water over the weekend, with oceanic heat content high enough to reduce the chance of cooler water being upwelled. Wind shear will drop to around 10 knots, which together with the warm water will help give Maria a bump-up in strength, perhaps to the high-end Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4 range. As time goes by, greater parts of the circulation will be passing over the wake of cooler water left by Jose. This should produce a gradual weakening trend, although Maria is still expected to be a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday. Wind shear should be around 10 – 15 knots for most of next week, which is moderately strong but not enough to destroy a well-organized hurricane like Maria. If Maria’s path continues trending westward, it will keep more of the circulation over the warm Gulf Stream waters and away from Jose’s wake, which would help Maria to maintain more of its intensity.

Regardless of Maria’s exact track, the hurricane is sure to bring a long period of increasing swells, dangerous surf, and rip currents to the Southeast U.S. coast, extending to the mid-Atlantic later next week. Significant beach erosion can be expected in and near the Outer Banks, given Maria’s strength and slow movement. There will also be an increasing chance of tropical-storm-force winds across parts of the U.S. East Coast by midweek (see Figure 4).

Tropical-storm-force wind probabilities from Maria, 12Z 9/23/2017 to 12Z 9/28/2017
Figure 4. Probability of tropical-storm-force winds for the five days ending at 8 am Thursday, September 28, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC.

Tiny TS Lee is a bundle of uncertainty

Hurricane Maria is an open book compared with the mysteries of Tropical Storm Lee. The new incarnation of Lee sprang to life on Friday from the northern remnants of ex-Tropical Storm Lee. It appears that Lee 2.0 could go any number of directions in strength as well as movement. At 11 am EDT Saturday, Lee was positioned in the central North Atlantic about 900 miles east of Bermuda, drifting north at just 2 mph. Though Lee is a tiny system—tropical-storm-force winds extend out only 35 miles from its center—its small size gives it a greater potential to either intensify or weaken quickly.

Lee is moving into a zone of fairly light upper-level wind shear (5 to 10 knots), which should persist for the next couple of days. Moreover, Lee will benefit from unusually warm sea surface temperatures (about 1°C above average) as well as unusually cool upper-level temperatures (about 3°C below average). Together, these will enhance instability to help keep Lee’s showers and thunderstorms vigorous. The official NHC forecast at 11 am EDT Saturday brings Lee to hurricane strength by Tuesday. The HWRF and HMON intensity models make Lee a hurricane much more quickly—by Sunday. This is certainly possible with a storm as small as Lee in such favorable conditions, although the rapid intensification index of the 12Z Saturday SHIPS model gives only a small chance of such quick strengthening.

Lee will remain far from land throughout the five-day forecast period, wandering through weak steering currents. Over time, Lee is expected to carry out an anticyclonic loop that will keep it in the central North Atlantic for the foreseeable future.

Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Lee as of 12:15 pm EDT Saturday, September 23, 2017.
Figure 5. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Lee as of 12:15 pm EDT Saturday, September 23, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
7-day rainfall forecast from GFS, issued 12Z 9/23/2017
Figure 6. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending at 8 am Saturday, September 30, 2017. A moist flow of air associated with Invest 98E is expected to bring heavy rains to West Texas. Image credit: NOAA.

Invest 98E a flood threat for Mexico and West Texas

In the Eastern Pacific, satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that area of disturbed weather located about 100 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (98E) was bringing heavy rains to the coast of Southwest Mexico. Moisture associated with 98E will be streaming northwards into West Texas over the next week, leading to widespread heavy rains in excess of 5”. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98E 2-day and 5-day odds of development into a tropical depression of 90%.

Dr. Jeff Masters contributed to this post. (Click to Site)

What Puerto Rico Teaches Us About Being Prepared

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Please read this carefully: One hundred percent of the power is offline in Puerto Rico. If we want to know what the effects of an EMP would be, Puerto Rico is an excellent laboratory. At least in Puerto Rico there is the hope that power will be quickly restored to critical services (eg hospitals, etc.). The only reason that the people of Puerto Rico can expect to  have power restored is because they are being served by Americans who already have power. However, if an EMP attack were to take out the national grid, there would be no rescue and the effects could last as long as a generation or longer.

Paul Martin

Paul Martin has information, from a high-level, deep-cover source that private government contractors are feversihly preparing for an EMP attack, presumably from North Korea. The crews are reportedly working 14 hour days an are not even making a significant dent. Their primary mission is to harden military assets. The expectation is that if the US was struck by an EMP, an invasion, presumably from China or China/Russia would follow. As an aside, if America wants to know what it is like to be attacked and occupied, I suggest watching Amazon Prime’s, The Man in the High Castle.

I am processing the Martin interview at the end of this week and this interview will be published on both the Youtube and the website of The Common Sense Show.

Since you are not considered to be necessary to national security, your life and your resources will not be shielded from the effects of an EMP. Therefore, what can you expect happen in the event of an EMP attack? More importantly, is there anything that can be done to lessen the impact? The following paragraphs address this issue.

Where Prepping Begins

If people do not prepare to weather the coming global elite sponsored storms, then that person is preparing to become a statistic. The bare minimum that people should have in order to survive what is coming would consist of food, water, gold, guns, ammunition and medicine. However, each of these products comes with a caveat.

Recognized experts are predicting that an EMP strike that would wipe out electricity across the nation would ultimately lead to the deaths  of 90% of the population, according to Naval War College simulations. In part, the reasons for the high mortality are embedded in the following.

Prescriptions

Anyone who uses the term “prescriptions” need to change their thinking. In a dire situation, you will not be able to stock up. You will be limited the meds you have on hand. Eaveryone on medication needs to find an alternative that is natural and that can be stockpiled.  This is why I use Health Masters (coupon code CSS5).

I have documented on several occasions how I have subsituted natural care for medical care. It works better, is affordable and you can legally horde the medications. You should already be doing this. For example, there are supplements that lower blood sugar (diabetes), however, the corresponding big pharma prescriptions are dangerous to your health and frequently cause heart attacks.

Those with chronic condition are particularily at risk and preparation should be an ongoing concern, crisis, or no crisis.

Currency

In this kind of a crisis, your paper money will be totally worthless. Those who plan to survive, need to immediately begin to accumulate precious metals. If you cannot afford to buy previous metals, then your default position should be to buy food. However, if you have more than 4 months of savings in the bank, you are being foolish. Convert this soon-to-be worthless cash to gold.

I use Steve Quayle’s Renaissance Precious Metals. Those that come out the other side of the crisis with a medium of exchange that will be univesally accepted, are going to be far better off. If you are interested in obtaining precious metals from someone I trust, call Steve Quayle (406-586-4842).

Conclusion

In the aftermath of Hurrican Harvey, I received this email from  a listerner to the radio show.

Dear Dave,

Thank you for the wonderful servive that you are providing for people. During the storm we were isolated, but as long as our roof was in place, we knew we’d be safe. We were prepared to survive because of the information I learned from the great guests that you have on your show.  We did not have a lot but we had enough. Keep up your great work and may God bless you and your family. 

Thanks,

Melissa Huggins

This is why I do this work. We cannot choose what evil plot will come our way. However, you can make a choice, like the one that Melissa did, to survive. I think Harvey, Irma, Maria and Jose should stand as a reminder that there is no substitute for survival preparation. (Click to Site)

Signs in Nature All Around The World | New Video September 17, 2017

And as some were saying of the temple that it was decorated with handsome (shapely and magnificent) stones and consecrated offerings [a]”>[a]laid up to be kept], He said,

As for all this that you [thoughtfully] look at, the time will come when there shall not be left here one stone upon another that will not be thrown down.

And they asked Him, Teacher, when will this happen? And what sign will there be when this is about to occur?

And He said, Be on your guard and be careful that you are not led astray; for many will come in My name [b]”>[b]appropriating to themselves the name Messiah which belongs to Me], saying, I am He! and, The time is at hand! Do not go out after them.

And when you hear of wars and insurrections (disturbances, disorder, and confusion), do not become alarmed and panic-stricken and terrified; for all this must take place first, but the end will not [come] immediately.

Then He told them, Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

There will be mighty and violent earthquakes, and in various places famines and pestilences (plagues: c]”>[c]malignant and contagious or infectious epidemic diseases which are deadly and devastating); and there will be sights of terror and great signs from heaven.

But previous to all this, they will lay their hands on you and persecute you, turning you over to the synagogues and prisons, and you will be led away before kings and governors for My name’s sake.

This will be a time (an opportunity) for you to bear testimony.

Resolve and settle it in your minds not to meditate and prepare beforehand how you are to make your defense and how you will answer.

For I [Myself] will give you a mouth and such utterance and wisdom that all of your foes combined will be unable to stand against or refute.

You will be delivered up and betrayed even by parents and brothers and relatives and friends, and [some] of you they will put to death.

And you will be hated (despised) by everyone because [you bear] My name and for its sake.

But not a hair of your head shall perish.

By your steadfastness and patient endurance you d]”>[d]shall win the e]”>[e]true life of your souls.

But when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, then know and understand that its desolation has come near.

Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, and let those who are inside [the city] get out of it, and let not those who are out in the country come into it;

For those are days of vengeance [of rendering full justice or satisfaction], that all things that are written may be fulfilled.

Alas for those who are pregnant and for those who have babies which they are nursing in those days! For great misery and anguish and distress shall be upon the land and indignation and punishment and retribution upon this people.

They will fall by f]”>[f]the mouth and the edge of the sword and will be led away as captives to and among all nations; and Jerusalem will be trodden down by the Gentiles until the times of the Gentiles are fulfilled (completed).

And there will be signs in the sun and moon and stars; and upon the earth [there will be] distress (trouble and anguish) of nations in bewilderment and perplexity [g]”>[g]without resources, left wanting, embarrassed, in doubt, not knowing which way to turn] at the roaring (h]”>[h]the echo) of the tossing of the sea,

Men swooning away or expiring with fear and dread and apprehension and expectation of the things that are coming on the world; for the [very] powers of the heavens will be shaken and i]”>[i]caused to totter.

And then they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with great (transcendent and overwhelming) power and [all His kingly] glory (majesty and splendor).

Now when these things begin to occur, look up and lift up your heads, because your redemption (deliverance) is drawing near.

And He told them a parable: Look at the fig tree and all the trees;

When they put forth their buds and come out in leaf, you see for yourselves and perceive and know that summer is already near.

Even so, when you see these things taking place, understand and know that the kingdom of God is at hand.

Truly I tell you, this generation (j]”>[j]those living at that definite period of time) will not perish and pass away until all has taken place.

The k]”>[k]sky and the earth (l]”>[l]the universe, the world) will pass away, but My words will not pass away.

But take heed to yourselves and be on your guard, lest your hearts be overburdened and depressed (weighed down) with the m]”>[m]giddiness and headache and n]”>[n]nausea of self-indulgence, drunkenness, and worldly worries and cares pertaining to [the o]”>[o]business of] this life, and [lest] that day come upon you suddenly like a trap or a noose;

For it will come upon all who live upon the face of the entire earth.

Keep awake then and watch at all times [be discreet, attentive, and ready], praying that you may have the full strength and ability and be accounted worthy to escape all these things [taken together] that will take place, and to stand in the presence of the Son of Man.

Now in the daytime Jesus was teaching in [p]”>[p]the porches and courts of] the temple, but at night He would go out and stay on the mount called Olivet.

And early in the morning all the people came to Him in the temple [q]”>[q]porches or courts] to listen to Him.  (Luke 21:5-38)

Footnotes:

  1. Luke 21:5 Joseph Thayer, A Greek-English Lexicon.
  2. Luke 21:8 Joseph Thayer, A Greek-English Lexicon.
  3. Luke 21:11 Webster’s New International Dictionary offers this phrase as a definition of “plague” and “pestilence.”
  4. Luke 21:19 Marvin Vincent, Word Studies.
  5. Luke 21:19 Joseph Thayer, A Greek-English Lexicon.
  6. Luke 21:24 John Wycliffe, The Wycliffe Bible.
  7. Luke 21:25 Joseph Thayer, A Greek-English Lexicon.
  8. Luke 21:25 Marvin Vincent, Word Studies.
  9. Luke 21:26 Joseph Thayer, A Greek-English Lexicon.
  10. Luke 21:32 Hermann Cremer, Biblico-Theological Lexicon.
  11. Luke 21:33 James Moulton and George Milligan, The Vocabulary.
  12. Luke 21:33 Joseph Thayer, A Greek-English Lexicon.
  13. Luke 21:34 Joseph Thayer, A Greek-English Lexicon.
  14. Luke 21:34 G. Abbott-Smith, Manual Greek Lexicon.
  15. Luke 21:34 John Wycliffe, The Wycliffe Bible.
  16. Luke 21:37 Richard Trench, Synonyms of the New Testament.
  17. Luke 21:38 Richard Trench, Synonyms of the New Testament.

Amplified Bible, Classic Edition (AMPC)Copyright © 1954, 1958, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1987 by The Lockman Foundation

Many have noticed… the world seems to be going crazy. Fires, Floods, Hurricanes…Natural Disasters all around us… with more frequency than ever before.  God is getting our attention. There are now more powerful hurricanes forming in the Atlantic…. half of Bangladesh is flooded.  The west is on fire.  Luke 21:25 seems to be happening before our eyes.

Each week or so Jason A puts together various news clips from around the world with prophetic significance.  This weeks compilation is especially powerful and apocalyptic showing the scope of all that is happening around the world. Check out this 15 minute video and keep looking up… It sure seems like our redemption is drawing near (Luke 21:28).

Washington Post Story
Hurricane Jose and Tropical Storm Maria could dance the Fujiwara!

Path of Maria…look familiar?
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(Click to Site)

Tropical Storm Irma to strengthen, track across Atlantic this week; Will it affect the US?

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While the Gulf Coast continues to deal with the devastating impacts of Harvey, emergency managers in the United States have another tropical threat to monitor by the name of Irma.

Far across the Atlantic, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, an area of thunderstorms has developed enough circulation to gather tropical storm status and the name, Irma.

“There is the potential to ramp up to a powerful hurricane in the coming days,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Irma will take about a week for the system to make its trek westward across the Atlantic Ocean. Meteorologists will likely be tracking this storm through the middle of September.

“All interests in the eastern Caribbean will need to monitor the progress of this evolving tropical cyclone, especially next week,” Kottlowski said. (Click to Site)