Tensions between nuclear-armed Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan exploded into open hostilities this week, with both sides launching cross-border strikes and trading heavy casualty claims that could not be independently verified.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif declared on X: “Our patience has now run out. Now it is open war between us.”
How the Escalation Unfolded
- Late Thursday: Afghan forces launched cross-border attacks into Pakistan, calling it retaliation for earlier Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan border areas.
- Early Friday: Pakistan responded with airstrikes in Kabul and two other Afghan provinces, claiming it targeted military installations.
- Ongoing: Fighting continues near the Torkham border crossing, with reports of mortar fire hitting civilian areas and refugee camps.
Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said Afghanistan had “targeted important military targets in Pakistan” and warned that Kabul would respond to “every evil act.”
Islamabad, meanwhile, accused the Taliban government of harboring militants and “exporting terrorism.”
Competing Casualty Claims
Both sides have issued sharply different casualty figures:
Pakistan’s military claims:
- 274 Afghan forces and affiliated militants killed
- 400+ wounded
- 12 Pakistani soldiers killed, 27 wounded
Afghanistan’s claims:
- 55 Pakistani soldiers killed
- 23 bodies allegedly taken into Afghan territory
- 13 Afghan soldiers killed
- 13 civilians wounded
None of the figures have been independently confirmed.
The Deeper Fault Lines
The conflict is rooted in several unresolved tensions:
- Militant Safe Havens:
Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has carried out attacks inside Pakistan. Kabul denies providing support. - India Factor:
Islamabad alleges Afghanistan has become a proxy for India, Pakistan’s longtime rival. New Delhi denies backing anti-Pakistan militant groups. - Border Clashes:
Months of skirmishes along the Durand Line have steadily eroded fragile ceasefires brokered by Qatar and others. - Refugee Crisis:
Millions of Afghans have been expelled or returned from Pakistan since late 2023, straining relations further.
Drone Activity and Expanding Conflict Risk
Pakistan says its air defense systems shot down multiple small drones over Abbottabad, Swabi, and Nowshera, claiming they were part of a failed Pakistani Taliban attack and alleging Taliban regime links.
Afghanistan reports ongoing shelling in Nangarhar province and retaliatory strikes on Pakistani posts.
The scale of military engagement — including airstrikes on Kabul — marks the most serious rupture since the Taliban regained control in 2021.
Regional and Global Reactions
- United Nations: Urged immediate de-escalation and protection of civilians.
- Iran: Called for dialogue and offered mediation.
- Russia: Demanded an immediate halt to hostilities.
- Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia: Previously facilitated talks that failed to produce a durable agreement.
What This Means
If sustained, this conflict could destabilize South Asia significantly:
- Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state.
- Afghanistan remains fragile under Taliban rule.
- Militant groups could exploit chaos.
- India-Pakistan tensions could reignite in parallel.
- Refugee flows could intensify further.
Both governments appear entrenched, and rhetoric has hardened dramatically.
For now, artillery exchanges and airstrikes continue — and the phrase “open war” is no longer political theater but operational reality.
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