For the first time in more than a century, Canada’s military has reportedly modeled how it would respond to a hypothetical invasion by the United States — a scenario officials stress is theoretical, but revealing nonetheless.
According to reporting by The Globe and Mail, senior Canadian defense officials have explored contingency models involving asymmetric warfare, partisan resistance, and international reinforcement in the unlikely event of a U.S. military incursion. The exercise marks a stunning break from historical assumptions, given that Canada is a founding NATO member, a NORAD partner, and America’s closest military ally.
Canadian officials emphasized the work does not constitute an operational war plan and includes no step-by-step instructions. Rather, it is a precautionary modeling exercise reflecting deteriorating trust within the Western alliance.
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Why Canada Is Even Considering This
Relations between Ottawa and Washington have cooled sharply under President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly described Canada as a potential “51st state” and openly questioned the durability of U.S.-led alliance structures.
Trump has also intensified rhetoric about asserting U.S. control over Greenland — a territory of Denmark and a NATO ally — further alarming European partners and reshaping threat perceptions across the Atlantic world.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently stated that Canada stands “firmly” with Greenland and Denmark on Arctic sovereignty, while also signaling interest in closer ties with China and a “new world order” — language that underscores the depth of the geopolitical rift.
What the Model Allegedly Envisions
Officials speaking anonymously told The Globe and Mail that the model assumes any U.S. operation would begin in southern Canada and proceed rapidly, overwhelming conventional Canadian defenses.
Because Canada lacks the manpower and equipment to repel a full-scale conventional assault, the model reportedly focuses on unconventional resistance, including sabotage, disruption, and persistent resistance — not decisive battlefield victory.
One official said the conceptual inspiration came from historical insurgencies such as the Afghan resistance to Soviet occupation — cited not as a blueprint, but as a historical example of how smaller forces attempt to deter or complicate occupation by a superior power.
Crucially, officials stressed the goal would be deterrence, not escalation.
International Backstop, Not Isolation
The model reportedly assumes Canada would immediately seek assistance from allied nuclear powers, including the United Kingdom and France. Retired Major-General David Fraser said any attack on Canada would likely trigger a global response.
“You could see German ships and British planes in Canada to reinforce sovereignty,” Fraser said, adding that Canada matters geopolitically in a way few other nations do.
Despite the modeling exercise, military-to-military relations between the U.S. and Canada remain cooperative. This week, both nations participated jointly in a NORAD exercise in Greenland.
Skepticism Inside Canada
Not everyone is convinced the scenario merits serious concern. Retired Lieutenant-General Mike Day called the idea of a U.S. invasion “fanciful,” while acknowledging that contingency planning itself can serve as a deterrent.
University of Toronto political scientist Aisha Ahmad argued that modeling worst-case scenarios can reduce the likelihood of conflict by clarifying costs.
“The better Canada can embrace this approach to homeland defence,” Ahmad said, “the less likely these scenarios are to ever come to pass.”
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What This Really Signals
The significance of the report is not military — it is civilizational.
For Canada to even simulate resistance against the United States reflects a collapse of assumptions that have governed North American security since World War II. It suggests Ottawa no longer sees U.S. power as automatically benevolent — and that alliance cohesion is fracturing under the weight of nationalism, trade conflict, and shifting global power.
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Conclusion
No one in Ottawa believes a U.S. invasion of Canada is imminent. But the fact that Canada is modeling resistance at all is a warning sign: trust inside the Western alliance is eroding.
What was once unthinkable is now being quietly studied — not because war is desired, but because the old certainties no longer hold.
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