A new artificial-intelligence–driven wargame conducted by researchers at the Heritage Foundation delivers a stark warning: the United States is dangerously unprepared for a major war with China — and the consequences would be catastrophic not just for America, but for the entire world.
The 375-page report, titled TIDALWAVE, used advanced AI modeling to simulate a prolonged Indo-Pacific conflict between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China. The findings were so sensitive that portions of the analysis were redacted for national security reasons.
“We believe a war is coming,” said Rob Greenway, director of the Allison Center for National Security. “We believe we are not prepared for it. We have proven we’re not prepared for it.”
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AI Reveals a Grim Reality
According to Greenway, the AI simulation uncovered vulnerabilities far beyond what traditional tabletop exercises had identified.
In a full-scale conflict with China, U.S. critical munitions would begin running out within a week and would be completely exhausted within 35 to 40 days in most scenarios. Once those stocks are depleted, America’s ability to sustain combat operations collapses.
Even more alarming, the report concluded that U.S. supply chains, industrial capacity, and replenishment timelines are not aligned with modern high-intensity warfare — especially against a peer adversary like China.
“No one has done this before because it’s such a heavy lift,” Greenway said. “Without leveraging technology, it would have been impossible.”
China Is Vulnerable — But Incentivized
While the study highlighted severe American weaknesses, it also revealed unexpected Chinese vulnerabilities, particularly in logistics, energy dependence, and economic fragility.
But that imbalance creates a paradox.
America’s visible unpreparedness incentivizes Beijing to strike, Greenway warned, because Chinese leadership may calculate that the U.S. cannot sustain a long war.
“The People’s Republic of China poses the most significant threat the U.S. has faced in decades,” said Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation. “Yet we remain dangerously unprepared to counter this adversary.”
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Global Economic Fallout
The report also modeled economic consequences.
A war between the U.S. and China would be massive enough to push the entire planet into a global recession, triggering supply-chain collapse, energy shocks, and financial instability far exceeding the 2008 crisis.
Disincentivizing war, the authors argue, is therefore just as important as preparing to fight one.
Can the Damage Be Fixed?
Shortly before the report’s release, President Donald Trump announced plans to request a $500 billion increase in defense spending for fiscal year 2027.
According to Heritage researchers, only a fraction of that amount is needed to fix the most dangerous vulnerabilities identified by the AI model.
Anna Gustafson, a researcher on the project, estimated that correcting the deficiencies would take three to five years and cost approximately $300 billion.
Greenway said the next step is for Congress and the Trump administration — including the Departments of Defense, Commerce, Treasury, and the intelligence community — to exploit Chinese vulnerabilities while rapidly fixing America’s own.
The goal: ensure the U.S. has sufficient resources to win a protracted war, while China does not.
Prophetic and Strategic Context
Scripture warns repeatedly of nations collapsing not from lack of power, but from misplaced confidence.
“If a kingdom is divided against itself, that kingdom cannot stand.” — Mark 3:24 (NASB 1977)
The TIDALWAVE report suggests America’s greatest danger is not China’s strength — but America’s complacency, bureaucratic inertia, and industrial decay.
Conclusion
For the first time, artificial intelligence has stripped away comforting assumptions and exposed the true state of U.S. military readiness.
The warning is clear.
The window is closing.
And the cost of inaction may be irreversible.
Whether Washington listens — or waits for catastrophe — remains to be seen.
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