Trump Doubles Down on Bagram: “Bad Things Are Going to Happen” if Afghanistan Doesn’t Return Airbase

By The Blogging Hounds The United States is pushing to regain control of Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan, a move that could significantly raise tensions across Central Asia, particularly with China, Russia, and Iran. Experts warn that reclaiming the massive base—abandoned in 2021 under President Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal—places U.S. forces within striking distance of China’s…

By The Blogging Hounds

The United States is pushing to regain control of Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan, a move that could significantly raise tensions across Central Asia, particularly with China, Russia, and Iran. Experts warn that reclaiming the massive base—abandoned in 2021 under President Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal—places U.S. forces within striking distance of China’s nuclear facilities in Xinjiang.

Bagram: A Base Too Valuable to Lose

Bagram, just 30 miles north of Kabul, has long been one of the largest U.S. military installations in the region. Its strategic location allows rapid deployment throughout Afghanistan, the wider Central Asian theater, and, crucially, near Chinese nuclear manufacturing sites in Xinjiang.

President Donald Trump has publicly vowed to secure the airbase. At a joint press briefing with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said the U.S. is “trying” to get Bagram back from the Taliban. On Saturday, he doubled down:

“If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back to those that built it, the United States of America, BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!!”

Trump emphasized that reclaiming Bagram is not just about Afghanistan—it is about regional security and keeping American power projection intact.

Biden’s Abandonment and Its Consequences

The base fell into Taliban hands in August 2021 after Biden’s withdrawal, executed without notifying the Afghan commander on site. Within hours, the Taliban released thousands of prisoners, many of whom joined terrorist networks. Islamic extremists then carried out attacks at Kabul Airport, killing 173 Afghans and 13 Americans.

Additionally, billions in U.S. military equipment were left behind, much of it later turned against coalition forces or funneled into regional terror groups. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced a full investigation into Biden’s “deadly failure” earlier this year.

Regional Repercussions: China, Russia, Iran

Analysts warn that U.S. efforts to retake Bagram will not be interpreted as a neutral security measure. Jagannath Panda of the Swedish Institute for Security and Development Policy notes that the operation could provoke “sharp reactions” from Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran.

Vina Ramachandran, associate professor at India’s Birla Institute of Technology and Science, echoes this view, adding that China will likely see Trump’s push as an attempt to undermine Beijing’s influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. While Beijing has maintained unofficial contacts with Afghan authorities—including over mineral development—it has not formally recognized the Taliban government.

Strategic Stakes: Near China’s Nuclear Heart

Trump highlighted the proximity of Bagram to Chinese nuclear facilities in Xinjiang as a key strategic reason for the push. Re-establishing a U.S. presence would give Washington unprecedented surveillance and strike capabilities in the region, a clear warning to Beijing.

This marks a major shift in U.S. foreign policy. Unlike Biden, whose withdrawal left America without leverage, Trump is signaling that Afghanistan will remain central to American security interests.

What Lies Ahead

Reclaiming Bagram will require either Taliban consent or pressure tactics, both of which could escalate into a broader regional confrontation. China, Russia, and Iran are likely to resist, and the Taliban will face a difficult choice: accommodate U.S. demands or risk confrontation.

The move also carries prophetic and geopolitical significance. With Afghanistan serving as a key node in regional power struggles, U.S. control of Bagram aligns with the larger strategic realignment foreseen in current Middle Eastern and Central Asian tensions—a scenario that could have ripple effects on global security and nuclear stability.

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