Food costs are still rising, as we see the food-at-home in February 2023 were 10.2 percent higher than in February 2022, and we feel it at the grocery store every day.
Yesterday Stefan came home from the store with four full plastic bags and a gallon of milk, and spent more than $200.
It is good thing we have emergency survival food we bought almost nine years ago, because it looks like we will be using it unless we win the lottery……..then again we don’t play the lottery, so there goes that idea.
With food inflation still topping overall inflation, and for some items, like cereals, we are talking 11%-12% increase from last year at this time.
Some key points from the USDA Economic Research Service’s March 2023 forecasts, which incorporate the February 2023 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.
• The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from January 2023 to February 2023 and was 10.2 percent higher than February 2022
• In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 7.5 percent, with a prediction interval of 5.5 to 9.6 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 7.8 percent, with a prediction interval of 5.3 to 10.5 percent. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 8.3 percent, with a prediction interval of 7.2 to 9.3 percent.
• Prices increased for 13 food-at-home categories between January 2023 and February 2023. Prices increased for all categories except fresh vegetables and eggs.
• In 2023, prices are predicted to increase for other meats (4.5 percent), poultry (3.4 percent), dairy products (6.4 percent), fats and oils (15.4 percent), processed fruits and vegetables (11.4 percent), sugar and sweets (11.1 percent), cereals and bakery products (11.7 percent), nonalcoholic beverages (10.7 percent), and other foods (8.5 percent).
• Retail egg prices decreased 6.7 percent in February 2023 but remained 55.4 percent above February 2022 prices. Egg prices are predicted to increase 29.6 percent in 2023, with a prediction interval of 13.4 to 48.9 percent. This wide prediction interval reflects the volatility in retail egg prices.
These are not numbers the MSM push at the people, as they prefer to focus on the lower “overall” inflation, yet food and water are the two items Americans cannot live without.
According to Foreign Policy, while we averted a “collapse of the global food system” in 2022, we are “one major crop failure or natural disaster away from a food system meltdown,” right now.
RICE WILL BE AN ISSUE……
“China is the largest rice and wheat producer in the world and is currently experiencing the highest level of drought in its rice growing regions in over two decades,” according to CNBC.
Another “major price driver” for rice is India, which has put restrictions on their rice exports
The key point in that report states “The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023.”
While this doesn’t affect Americans as severely as those in other countries, rice is still one of the staple foods for Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck, and with the increased prices due to global shortages, buying in bulk ends up being cheaper in the long run.
Augason Farms Long Grain White Rice Emergency Food Storage 24 Pound Pail
Augason Farms Long Grain Brown Rice Emergency Food Storage 24 Pound Pail
Wheatland™ White Rice • Delicious • Healthy Food Option • 20 lbs. Bulk Rice • Mylar and Bucket Provide 25 Year Shelf Life • Emergency Food Storage • Non-GMO • High Trust Seller • 40 Year Legacy of Prepping
Brown Lentils | 25 LBS | Emergency Food Storage Bucket | Non-GMO | Grown on Our Family Farm | Bulk
Related: For Food Price Inflation Clues, Watch India
Rice is not something we have focused on as much as meats and vegetables in the past, but for households that can barely make ends meet, rice is a staple used often.
Again, lucky for us, we prepared in advance, back when we actually had some money in the bank, so our buckets/pails of rice will last us a while.
I see a lot of rice and beans in my future.
ADD SUGAR TO THE LIST……
We are finding reports now on sugar prices which have spiked to an 11 year high, due to a variety of factors, including, by unseasonal rainfall in India, a poor European beat crop, summer drought conditions as well as OPEC+’s oil output cuts.
This does not just affects the purchase of granulated or confectioners sugar, but all candies made with sugars, including pastries, and cookies, cakes, etc….
“The rising price of confectionary and sugar-based beverages will incorporate rising sugar values,” said John Stansfield, a senior sugar analyst at commodity data platform DNEXT.
Prices of processed foodstuff are rising globally, Stansfield added.
“In a bar of chocolate you have milk, cocoa powder etc. and these costs are also rising. Energy and labor costs to make such goods are also rising,” he said.
A specific quote from Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Matthew Biggin, highlights the issue when he states “But ”[sugar] prices are so high right now that even if prices cool substantially when the Brazilian harvest hits the market, prices could still be considered elevated above historical levels.”
Sugar will be a consumable we will be keeping an eye, as well as honey which is an excellent substitute for baking.
Wheatland™ White Sugar • Delicious • USA grown • 20 lbs Bulk • Mylar and Bucket Provide 25 Year Shelf Life • Emergency Food Storage • High Trust Seller • 40 Year Legacy of Prepping
Cane Sugar By Unpretentious Baker, 3.5 Gallon Bucket, Bulk Size, Variety of Uses, Sweetener, Food Storage
Raw, Unfiltered, Unpasteurized Texas Honey by Desert Creek Honey 5 Gallon (60 lbs) Bulk Bucket Non-GMO, Kosher
For those with a sweet tooth, it might be handy and far less expensive to start learning how to make your own candy, even chocolates. At the bottom of this article we have a video on making your own chocolate, from scratch.
Chocolate for Beginners: Techniques and Recipes for Making Chocolate Candy, Confections, Cakes and More
The Complete Photo Guide to Candy Making: All You Need to Know to Make All Types of Candy – The Essential Reference for Beginners to Skilled Candy … Caramels, Truffles Mints, Marshmallows & More
Via the US Food’s Farmer’s report:
- Moscow said it would only consider a further extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement beyond the current May 18 deadline if several demands in relation to its own exports are met, according to Reuters
- According to the weekly USDA crop conditions report, just 27% of the winter wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, down from 28% last week and 32% last year
Just a few basic items made from wheat, include but are not limited to;
As long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, wheat is going to be an issue, and prices will continue to rise, especially if the Black Sea Grain initiative does expire.
Emergency Wheat Berry Bucket Supply | 100 LBS | Hard White, Soft White, Hard Red Winter, Hard Red Spring Wheat Berries [25 lbs each]
Wheatland™ Hard White Wheat Berries • 25 lbs Bucket, Mylar Liner & Oxy Pack • Emergency Food Storage • Family Farmed in Utah/Idaho • 13.9% Protein • Non-GMO • Lab Tested Chemical-Free • Premium Quality • Sproutable • 25 Year Shelf Life
Wheatland™ Hard Red Wheat Berries • 25 lbs Bucket, Mylar Liner & Oxy Pack • Emergency Food Storage • Family Farmed in Utah/Idaho • 13.8% Protein • Non-GMO • Lab Tested Chemical-Free • Premium Quality • Sproutable • 25 Year Shelf Life
Grain Mills: (Different price ranges)
Grain Mill 150g High Speed Food Electric Stainless Steel Grinder Mill Seeds Flour Nut Pill Wheat Corn Herbs Spices & Seasonings Grinder Dry Grain Superfine Powder Machine
OKF Grain Mills Electric Stainless Steel Grain Grinder Mill High-speed Cereals Corn Herb Spice Flour Mill Commercial Grade Machine Dry Grain Grinder
Powerful High Speed Electric Grain Mill Grinder for Healthy Gluten-Free Flours – Grain Grinder Mill, Wheat Grinder, Flour Mill Machine and Flour Mill Grinder for Home and Professional Use – Wondermill
Bread Baking for Beginners: The Essential Guide to Baking Kneaded Breads, No-Knead Breads, and Enriched Breads
Bread Illustrated: A Step-By-Step Guide to Achieving Bakery-Quality Results At Home
Bread on the Table: Recipes for Making and Enjoying Europe’s Most Beloved Breads
Homemade Pasta Made Simple: A Pasta Cookbook with Easy Recipes & Lessons to Make Fresh Pasta Any Night
Mastering Pasta: The Art and Practice of Handmade Pasta, Gnocchi, and Risotto
Authentic Homemade Pasta: Recipes for Mastering Cut, Shaped, Stuffed, Extruded, and Flavored Pastas
Other items used to make your own baked goods, some of which are already seeing shortages in our local stores, include:
Fresh and Honest Foods Dehydrated Whole Eggs 40 OZ #10 Can (94 Servings). Up to 10+ Years Shelf Life.
Hoosier Hill Farm Real Butter powder, 1 lb
When you hear the MSM tout a lower inflation rate, remember that food costs are more than double that for many consumables, and as seen above, new products are being added to the list of “increasing” food prices, almost every week.
Preparation is key to survival.
With that said we just received an email from ANP family member Sabra with an excellent addition to our growing book recommendations.
The Encyclopedia of Country Living, 50th Anniversary Edition: The Original Manual for Living off the Land & Doing It Yourself Paperback