Experts Warn ‘Major Food Security Threat’ In 2023 With 4th Generation Farmer Insists It Will Be ‘Worse Than’ 2022 – Food Prices Will Never Go Back To What They Were In 2020

Welcome to 2023. While the year seemed to simply fly by, by December, for Stefan and I, 2023 couldn’t get here fast enough as Murphy’s Law, where anything that can go wrong, does, became our nightmare.

The end of 2022 was a case of “when it rains it pours.” The septic tank started sending sewage water into the basement, to which Stefan ended up shutting the water off until we could get someone out here to drain it (2 days without water). Our central gas heater went, something about a motor, but using the very same ideas and tips we offered as prepping advice, here we are, warm and cozy without central heat.  (Yeah for prepping!!!!!) Our dryer’s heating element went, and last but not least, below the sink flooded while I was doing dishes and didn’t realize it until my socks were soaked.

All in December of 2022. Good riddance.

So, yes, Stefan and I are quite happen 2022 is over and 2023 has begun. 

With that said, 2023 is not going to be all rainbows and flowers for America. 

We are warned that food inflation is still getting worse, with a farmer from TN asserting there will be a “major food security threat,” in 2023, as we see predictions of food shortages that are expected, some the same as we have seen and some new shortages expected, as prices are also expected to continue to rise, while overall (not just food) inflation is touted as going down.


In 2022 we saw food prices spike in a manner not seen in decades, with eggs rising 43 percent from October 2021 to October 2022. That is on top of the prices increases from 2020 to 2021.

In 2023, we will be seeing the affects of the nightmare scenarios that farmers were forced to deal with in 2022, specifically their costs for fertilizer, and the drought conditions towards the west, and to a lesser degree throughout the country.

The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture), states clearly on their website that “Food Price Inflation Pressures to Continue in 2023.”

We’ll start with the expected and predicted upcoming food inflation before getting into the shortages, which unlike 2020, aren’t represented by empty shelves, but rather a limit of options and shrinkflation, where packaging is smaller yet the prices are the same or higher.

Reuters reports that “Food inflation is set to spill over into 2023.”

Key points:

• Drought, too much rain, war and energy costs look set to curb global farm production again next year.

• Rice and wheat stores likely won’t be replenished in the first half of 2023.

• Edible oil supplies are down because of adverse weather in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

• Flooding in Australia and severe drought in Argentina will shrink key wheat harvests and availability in coming months.

• And a lack of rainfall in the U.S. Plains could dent supplies for the second half of the year.

• Rice prices are expected to remain high because of duties imposed by main exporter India.

Fox News reported on December 27, that a fourth-generation dairy farmer is predicting worse food shortages, higher prices in 2023 amid inflation, drought, interests rate hikes, and that we are facing a “major food security threat” in 2023, stating it will be “worse than this year.”

Drought, supply chain shortages and the rising cost of doing business led to a difficult 2022 for American farmers, but 2023 could be even worse, a fourth-generation dairy farmer said. 

“I definitely think we have a food security threat,” Stephanie Nash, a Tennessee farmer and agriculture advocate told Fox News. “I believe 2023 is going to be rough. Worse than this year.”


“2022 was a really hard year,” the 29-year-old said. “I think there’s going to be a lot of shortages next year for sure.” 

“We’re going to have a supply chain shortage, we’re going to have an increase in our food [prices] at the grocery store,” she added. “I don’t think it’s going to go down anytime soon, and I think Americans are really going to be hurting in their wallet.”

Read the rest at Fox News.

WKU Center of Applied Economics Director and Associate Professor of Economics,  Dr. Sebastian Leguizamon, offers his own prediction, stating “What I do think is that we are still going to see some price increases in the future… I don’t know if it’s going to be three percent or four percent. It may well be seven percent. You never know.. But my gut feeling, according to what we have seen and what we continue to see is that the prices are still going to go up a little bit.”

Restaurants are being hit as hard as home cooks, with examples explained in the following manner: “Definitely [prices were] going up. Our chicken one [sic] from 99 cents to almost $2.99…Potatoes, definitely zucchini, squash. Tomatoes last week were just $50 a case. It’s crazy.”  

Note that we used sources from the left (Reuters), the right (Fox News) and local reports which are generally down the middle.

At the same time the majority of the MSM, along with the Biden regime keeps insisting things are getting better, while they highlight a slight lessening of overall inflation, ignoring the unprecedented continued rise in food costs across the board.

Now ask yourself:  “Self, have I ever seen food prices go down?” 

We don’t expect food costs to go down and if they do, they will not go down to the levels they were before “Biden-Flation.”


While we get less reports of empty shelves, except before a massive storm by panic shoppers, we do note that in 2021 many stores adjusted to the lack of selection and limited supplies by condensing aisles to appear more full.

Shrinkflation has hit almost all types of products from chips (less chips in a bag) to soups (smaller cans for the same price), drinks thinner bottles with less weight for the same price or higher, etc….. 

In June of 2022, Finger Lakes offered a list of companies engaging in shrinkflation, with the numbers and percentages of how much smaller the brand names have made their products.

Domino’s pizza: boneless wings are sold in 8 packs instead of 10 packs

• Subway: there are reports that rotisserie chicken wraps and subs have less meat

• Gatorade: bottles used to be 32oz and are now 28oz

• Fritos- Party bags used to be 18oz, now they are 15.5oz, and are more expensive

• Burger King: reduced the amount of nuggets per box

• Kleenex: tissue boxes contained 65 tissues and now only have 60

Other companies are doing this too. Here are some other companies to be aware of, they are listed with the percent size reduction from the original:

• Crest Toothpaste: 7%

• Cottonelle: 8%

• Charmin: 8%

• Chobani: 15%

• Dove body wash: 8%

• Folger: 15%

• M&M Keebler cookies: 14%

• Gain detergent: 7%

• GM Cereals: 5%

• Safeguard soap: 20%

• Strawberry Quaker Oats: 20%

• Sun-Maid Raisins: 11%

• Tostitos hint of lime chips: 15%


We’ll start with the website Eat This, Not That, which explains that food shortages may get worse in 2023, with their reasoning of why, which confirms what others have asserted. The war between Russia and Ukraine is expected to lower Ukraine’s ability to provide wheat by  up to 45 percent, droughts in some areas, while others suffer extreme rains, among other reasons.

One thing to keep in mind for 2023, is that everything that happened to the food supply chain in 2022, will be felt this year, as crops produce less, bird flu (chicken and eggs), plant viruses (lettuce) and the destruction of an unprecedented amount of food plants and processing facilities.

If you were hoping the new year would mark a renewed era of abundance for the U.S. food system, we have some bad news. The various food shortages that defined the past 12 months—butter, baby formula, eggs—are not only expected to continue, but experts are also predicting that they could get even worse in 2023.


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Hoosier Hill Farm Buttermilk Powder, 1 Pound

Hoosier Hill Farm Heavy Cream Powder Jar, 1 Pound

Valley Food Storage Whole Powdered Eggs | 120 Servings Premium Emergency Food Supply | All Natural, Non-GMO Survival Food 25 Year Shelf Life 

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Caen Augason Farms Dried Whole Egg Powder

Powdered Milk

Baby Formula

Other foods predicted to see, or continue to see shortages of include, but are not limited to; bread, vegetable oil, corn, butter, tomatoes, champagne, flour, and beef.

Unfortunately, increasing environmental disasters are also contributing to the food shortages in a major way. Fox Business explains that California’s devastating drought has led to empty rice fields and a 10% loss of viable farmland. Simply put, lost agricultural revenues from lost crops means less money and land to produce the foods we place on our dinner tables. “Everything from the milk industry around to almonds has been affected,” UC Davis Agricultural Economics Professor Daniel Sumner told Fox Business.

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Vegetable Oil

Freeze Dried Corn 

Freeze Dried Tomatoes 


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Wheat Berries

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Grain Mills: (Different price ranges)

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Last, but not least for our beer drinkers!!!

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Between food inflation, shrinkflation, energy costs and shortages, 2023 will, unfortunately, be worse due to the crises that hit the food supply chain, the Russia/Ukraine war, crop damages, avian flu, and the destruction of food processing plants in 2022.

There is always something forgotten, used up and needs to be replaced, or a need to increase stocks, so we ask our readers to once again help each other with links, resources, tips and tricks, videos and anything else that may be helpful for 2023.

Stay safe and stay prepared.


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