The Russian Army, using its overwhelming firepower, is smashing the Ukraine army, sending Ukraine troops fleeing for their lives. Now, things have gotten much worse because Ukraine is simply running out of ammunition.
Newly promised Western weapons systems are arriving, but too slowly and in insufficient quantities to prevent incremental but inexorable Russian gains in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, which is now the focus of the fight.
Around 200 Ukrainian soldiers are now being killed every day, up from 100 late last month, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC on Friday — meaning that as many as 1,000 Ukrainians are being taken out of the fight every day, including those who are injured.
To the shock and dismay of Ukraine supporters, the overall trajectory of the war has unmistakably shifted away from one of unexpectedly dismal Russian failures and tilted in favor of Russia as the demonstrably stronger force.
The odds against the Ukrainians are starting to look overwhelming, said Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, an adviser to the Ukrainian government on defense and intelligence issues.
“The Russians are using long-range artillery against us, often without any response, because we don’t have the means,” he said. “They can attack from dozens of kilometers away and we can’t fire back. We know all the coordinates for all their important targets, but we don’t have the means to attack.”
“The strategies and tactics of the Russians are completely different right now. They are being much more successful,” he said. “They have more resources than us and they are not in a rush.”
“There’s much less space for optimism right now,” he added.
Ukraine has now almost completely run out of ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies to donate, Danylyuk said. Ukraine urgently needs to shift to longer-range and more sophisticated Western systems, but those have only recently been committed, and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s immense firepower, he said.
Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days.
The Russians have meanwhile adapted their tactics in ways that have let them take full advantage of their firepower by remaining at a distance from Ukrainian positions, pounding them relentlessly, then taking territory once the Ukrainians have been forced to retreat.
When this conflict erupted in February, I told listeners to my radio show, and readers of this web site, “Ukraine doesn’t stand a chance.”
Of course at the time, I had no idea the west (NATO) would pour so much weaponry into Ukraine, which, at first thought, would dramatically change the equation in Ukraine’s favor.
Then the ugly reality of American and NATO “smart weapons” struck: Our advanced weaponry, is very, VERY, fragile. Yes, it is sophisticated, and when it works, it is devastatingly effective, but quite often, our high tech gizmos DON’T work. The electronics that make the weapons so smart, are not suited for the rough and tumble realities of the battlefield.
That became evident when, after killing or capturing a number of Ukrainian regiments, the Russian Army found Ukrainian troop cell phones. One the screens of those phones: Google Searches with the search terms “Why isn’t javelin working” “javelin won’t shoot” “javelin making noises”
Here, look at one of the phones from the Battle field:
The equipment failures aside, there is another far more important reason Ukraine is losing, and losing badly: history.
I am a sort of student of history and I know full well that it was the Russian Army that stormed Berlin in WW2. Not the Americans, not the British, not the French. It was the Russians that totally crushed Hitler, and at a staggering cost to the Russian nation and its people. But they DID IT. They paid the price, and won.
The youngsters handling military strategy and intelligence analysis in the US and our NATO vasal states these days, seem to have ZERO knowledge of history. They game-out scenarios on their computers, and to them, they think they know how things will turn out. But it is blazingly clear they did not (and do not) factor-in historical realities. In this instance, the one historical reality they failed to consider is that the Russian Army is one of the two most fearsome fighting forces on planet earth.
As such, Ukraine never stood a chance. This was over the moment the Russian Army crossed the border into Ukraine.
Ukraine’s best hope right now is to unconditionally surrender. To do anything else, will merely delay the inevitable, and cause the deaths of hundreds-of-thousands more Ukrainians, fighting against a force they have zero chance of defeating.
Sadly, Ukraine cannot even NEGOTIATE a peace deal, because they’ve shown their word (in negotiations) is worthless. Ukraine negotiated the Minsk Agreement, then reneged and didn’t implement even ONE of the terms it agreed to. They did this for over five years!
Moreover, when the fighting initially began, Ukraine announced they would not abide by the Geneva Convention on the treatment of prisoners of war, they signed back in the 1940’s. So now, nobody can believe anything Ukraine says because they’ve proven their word is useless. Surrender is their only option.