The Moment of Truth for the Oroville Dam-New Data Indicates the Coming Failure

Submitted by Dave Hodges on Tuesday, May 14, 2019 – 12:10.

I spoke with Paul Preston late last night and he indicated that some people, downstream from the Oroville Dam have packed up and left because of the anticipated dam failure. I asked Paul Preston, “How close is the dam to failing?” Preston replied “It could go by this weekend”.. His comments, in part, are based upon the dire weather forecast in which intense rainfall is forecasted between Wednesday May 15 and Sunday, May 19th. This is significant because this could greatly add to the inflow and the outflow data which shows an extreme imbalance. And when we consider that the dam is 12 feet from overtopping, the danger multiplies exponentially. When any structure takes on more water, whether it be a ship or a dam, it is going to fail/sink.

Paul Preston and myself had an intense conversation about the timing of my next article on the Oroville Dam. We both decided that putting out this progress report on the conditions related to the dam was prudent because it could save lives, before it is too late.

This article is a progress report. However, it is also a warning to the residents in the Central Valley which lie below the Oroville Dam and are in the direct path of the torrent of water that will be released when the dam fails. Some are leaving and some more will undoubtedly leave before it is too late. However, we many unsuspecting potential victims that are oblivious to the present set of conditions. This article is aimed at getting the present state of the Dam in front of as many people in the Central Valley as possible.

NO SECURITY AT DAM: Grouting to Stop the Leaks at Dam

Paul Preston has previously related to me that the California State Government has a financial motivation to see the dam fail based on the following:

  • The State of California is broke and the state is quickly reaching a state of insolvency.
  • If the Oroville Dam fails, the state will instantly quality for over a billion dollars in federal disaster aid.
  • The state has motive to see the dam fail.

Based on these facts, one can understand why when security of the Oroville Dam disappeared for 32 hours, foul play would be suspected. We have already seen the state dynamite the earthen sides of the dam and the constant flow of trucks and their subsequent vibrations are of concern to the locals in that they believe that the activity could contribute to the failure of the dam. Subsequently, tension and emotions are running high.

The Data Speaks for Itself

The following chart, as one can clearly see, is from the State of California. In the preliminary comments, one can see that data reporting is problematic when it comes to the Oroville Dam. However, obtained records, listed below the comments indicates a serious problem what will eventually result in overtopping the dam. This in turn will lead to the ultimate failure of the spillway and the emergency spillway and the dam will fail.

I am told that the California data which speaks to “inflow” and “outflow” are being purposely understated. However, even if we use California’s state government figures, one can only conclude that disaster is coming and with the water level only 12 feet from the top, disaster is coming sooner rather than later.

Please note the highlighted columns. One can clearly see, that within the last 24 hours, the dam is clearly taking on more water than it can release. And with a compromised spillway, the failure of the dam will be hastened. Remember, the latest weather forecast is calling for heavy rain between Wednesday and Sunday.

(ORO)

Elevation: 900.0′ · FEATHER R basin · Operator: CA Dept of Water Resources/O&M Oroville Field Division

Station comments:

04/16/2019 Transmission equipment repaired. Hourly data is back online as of 4/15/2019 10:00.
02/23/2017 Outflow from Oroville includes all releases from the Oroville Dam (i.e.: Hyatt, spillway, low flow outlet), while River Release (RIV REL) pertains to the Oroville Complex as a whole which includes any releases from the Diversion Dam gates and Thermalito Afterbay River Outlet.
04/15/2019 Beginning 4/12/2019 16:00, reservoir elevation and storage are not transmitting correctly. Data is being flagged automatically.

Query executed Tuesday at 05:06:54

Provisional data, subject to change.

Select a sensor type for a plot of data.


Hourly Data

RAIN

INCHES

PDT RES ELE

FEET

STORAGE

AF

OUTFLOW

CFS

INFLOW

CFS

RIV REL

CFS

BAT VOL

VOLTS

05/13/2019 18:00 889.04 3,367,363 9,479 11,286 7,496 42.38 13.4
05/13/2019 19:00 889.05 3,367,516 9,393 11,673 7,497 42.38 13.4
05/13/2019 20:00 889.05 3,367,516 9,557 11,270 7,496 42.38 13.4
05/13/2019 21:00 889.05 3,367,516 9,464 10,714 7,496 42.38 13.4
05/13/2019 22:00 889.05 3,367,516 9,511 9,597 7,496 42.38 13.4
05/13/2019 23:00 889.05 3,367,516 9,541 9,594 7,518 42.38 13.4
05/14/2019 00:00 889.05 3,367,516 9,598 9,598 7,497 42.38 13.4
05/14/2019 01:00 889.06 3,367,669 9,596 9,625 7,518 42.38 13.4
05/14/2019 02:00 889.07 3,367,822 9,392 10,548 7,517 42.38 13.4
05/14/2019 03:00 889.09 3,368,127 9,693 11,467 7,517 42.38 13.4
05/14/2019 04:00 889.09 3,368,127 9,686 11,284 7,496 42.38 13.4
05/14/2019 05:00

Latest Photos From Paul Preston’s Agenda 21’s Radio Website

The latest photos provided by the California State Department of Water Resources shows increased leakage on the main Oroville Dam spillway. Two photos taken on the morning of May 12, 2019 show overnight leaks have NOT gone away but increased over the last week. Attempts by the DWR to use various injection solutions have failed to deter the water behind the spillway plates..

oroville
Photo provided by DWR May 12, 2019 from the upper spillway gates of the Oroville dam.
oroville
Photo provided by DWR May 12, 2019 of the Oroville dam main spillway.
oroville
Photo provided by DWR May 11, 2019 of the Oroville dam main spillway.

The photo above provided by the DWR was taken on the afternoon of May 11, 2019 shows less leakage. This is due to the afternoon sun drying out the leaks.   

The Risk of Inaction

A policy decision has been with regard to the threat. Every time an article is published on the CSS site, about the condition of the Oroville Dam, until failure, the dangers will be published along with any new information. The following represents the risk associated with a catastrophic dam failure.

  1. A breach of the dam would release a 30 foot wall of water traveling at 75 MPH.
  2. The escaping water would reach Sacramento within 45 minutes (long estimate).
  3. Over one million people lie in the path of the water.
  4. After the dam fails, there is not time to evacuate the population.
  5. Thirty percent of all American retail crosses this area from ports on the Pacific Ocean. The effect on the economy would be catastrophic.
  6. The Central Valley is one of the most bountiful agricultural areas in the world. No crops would grow for years. Combined with the Midwest flooding, famines will result and extreme food inflation.
  7. America would teeter upon collapse.

Above all else, lives are most important and the entire region should be evacuated. If the crisis is being overblown, why are there hundreds of trucks at the dam? Why are they working on the dam night and day. This is not normal maintenance and the data strongly indicates a disaster is at hand. Evacuation should be immediate. (Click to Source)

 

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